Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 48.25%. A win for Galatasaray had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.65%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Galatasaray win was 1-2 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.