Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 56.92%. A win for Besiktas had a probability of 21.9% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.14%) and 1-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Besiktas win was 1-2 (5.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Besiktas would win this match.