Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Besiktas win with a probability of 42.61%. A win for Galatasaray had a probability of 32.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Besiktas win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Galatasaray win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Besiktas would win this match.