Two teams separated by three points in Ligue 1 will face each other this weekend as Strasbourg host Nantes at Stade de la Meinau on Sunday.
The Alsatians spotted Bordeaux a 3-0 lead in their previous fixture, eventually falling 4-3, while La Maison Jaune picked up their first league victory of 2022, defeating Lorient 4-2.
Match preview
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It has been quite some time since we have seen a Strasbourg side as powerful and technically gifted as this current squad have shown themselves to be, collecting 35 points domestically thus far, their best tally at this stage of a campaign since 1978-79 when they won what is to date their lone top flight title.
Winning a second domestic championship this season is probably unrealistic, as they trail the league leaders Paris Saint-Germain by 18 points at the moment, although qualifying for Europe is certainly an attainable goal as they are currently positioned to claim a spot in the Europa League.
Before their defeat to Les Girondins, this team had only conceded one first-half strike in their previous five domestic affairs, but Julien Stephan's side struggled to contain the Bordeaux attack, particularly Hwang Ui-jo, who picked up a hat-trick in that encounter.
Strasbourg have shown a lot of spunk since Stephan took charge, and they are among the best in the league in front of goal, scoring 44 times so far, which is second only to PSG (46).
This team is big, robust, and difficult to contend with in the air, with a good amount of their goals being scored off headers or set pieces.
They come into this contest suffering only one defeat in their last six home games and have brought the crowd at Stade de la Meinau to their feet numerous times, notching 18 goals over that stretch.
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After beginning 2022 with a pair of uninspiring performances in the league versus Monaco (0-0) and Nice (2-1 loss), Nantes were a lot sharper in all facets of their match versus Les Merlus, controlling the pace of that game from the early stages.
Les Canaris maintained that momentum this past weekend in a 2-0 win over Brest at the Coupe de France in a match where manager Antoine Kombouare praised his side's work ethic when it comes to covering the spaces in behind their defence, while fighting hard for one another.
Putting together a solid collective effort has always been a point of emphasis that the former Strasbourg boss has mentioned to his team, while also ensuring that his players are positionally sound in order to avoid conceding clear-cut chances.
As the coach put it following their 2-0 triumph in their cup tie, victories help bring you confidence, and they will need to be confident in themselves going up against a side as potent as La Racing, who scored twice against Nantes in their first meeting earlier this season.
La Maison Jaune have captured four of their last six Ligue 1 games, which is as many as they had in their previous 14, while they have claimed 13 points from their last six top-flight encounters, with Nice being the only side to accumulate more points over that time period (15).
Nantes have only dropped one of their previous five matches in all competitions, although only one of those positive results came against a side currently in the top half of the standings, drawing Lille 1-1, while defeating Lorient and Saint-Etienne by a 1-0 score and squeaking past Sochaux on penalties in their Coupe de France tie in December.
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Team News
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Kevin Gameiro notched a brace in a losing effort to Bordeaux as the Frenchman now has four goals in his last three games, while Abdul Majeed Waris collected his second of the season in that encounter and leading goalscorer Ludovic Ajorque notched his seventh assist of the campaign, putting him in a tie for second in the league, alongside Amine Gouiri of Nice.
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde and Moise Sahi are both nursing muscle injuries, while Habib Diallo and Senegal will look to claim their first Africa Cup of Nations title on Sunday against Egypt and Maxime Le Marchand is out until at least April with a back issue.
Striker Lebo Mothiba has been loaned to Troyes for the remainder of the season, while the club signed Ismael Doukoure from Valenciennes for an undisclosed fee and Benjamin Besic is now on loan at Schlitigheim in the fourth tier of French football.
Nantes centre-back Jean-Charles Castelletto and Cameroon will play Burkina Faso for a bronze medal at the Africa Cup of Nations on Saturday, following their defeat in a penalty shootout against Egypt.
Abdoulaye Dabo is now a member of Olympiacos in Greece, signing before the winter transfer window ended for an undisclosed fee.
Ludovic Blas notched a brace in their Coupe de France victory last Friday, while four different players got their name on the scoresheet versus Lorient, including Andrei Girotto scoring his fifth of the campaign, Randal Kolo Muani picked up his team-leading seventh domestically, while Osman Bukari and Willem Geubbels each scored their first goals of the season.
Strasbourg possible starting lineup:
Sels; Sissoko, Nyamsi, Fila; Caci, Aholou, Kandil, Thomasson, Guilbert; Gameiro, Ajorque
Nantes possible starting lineup:
Lafont; Fabio, Appiah, Girotto, Pallois, Merlin; Geubbels, Chirivella, Augustin; Kolo Muani, Blas
We say: Strasbourg 2-0 Nantes
Nantes are riding plenty of momentum, but they have not proven that they are capable of defeating sides near the top of the standings, and as good as their defence was last weekend, Racing are likely to create a lot more challenges for them.
Strasbourg can be an intimidating team to play against, as they do not back down from a duel, and despite losing their last match, they should be feeling supremely confident about their ability to score goals and that alone may be enough to win them this match.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Strasbourg win with a probability of 57.68%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Strasbourg win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Nantes win it was 0-1 (6.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Strasbourg in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Strasbourg.
