Barnsley and Stoke City square off in the Championship on Wednesday evening with just goal difference separating the two playoff-chasing clubs.
While the Tykes are unbeaten in their last five fixtures in the second tier, the Potters have recently got back on track with successive home victories.
Match preview
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In the weeks after the turn of the year, Barnsley's promising form under Valerien Ismael started to unravel, creating the prospect of the remainder of the campaign being spent in mid-table.
Three successive victories for the loss of just one goal have changed the club's trajectory, however, and they will now feel that they can challenge for the playoffs.
Sitting just six points adrift of fifth-placed Reading with a game in hand, Ismael knows that the Tykes are within touching distance of becoming a major player in the promotion race, a remarkable change in fortunes after narrowly avoiding relegation in July.
Ismael will stress that his players should be taking one match at a time, but he can only have been left feeling positive after the impacts made by January arrivals Carlton Morris and Daryl Dike.
Morris has netted in three successive games, an important contribution with top goalscorer Cauley Woodrow having failed to score in five appearances.
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As far as Stoke are concerned, Michael O'Neill will be relieved that his side have rallied to claim successive wins against Sheffield Wednesday and Luton Town.
One win in 13 second-tier fixtures had left the Potters as outsiders for the top six, but they now trail Bournemouth by just four points with 15 matches remaining.
Although both of Stoke's recent triumphs have come at the bet365 Stadium, they now travel to Yorkshire believing that they can finally end a near three-month wait for an away victory.
Nick Powell and Steven Fletcher have scored Stoke's last eight goals, a period stretching back until the closing stages of their 3-3 draw at Rotherham United on January 19.
Barnsley Championship form: LDDWWW
Barnsley form (all competitions): DDLWWW
Stoke City Championship form: LDDLWW
Team News
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O'Neill is expected to keep changes to a minimum after Stoke performed well against Luton on Saturday.
Sam Clucas or James McClean could replace Josh Tymon on the left, but Fletcher should shake off a knock to remain in attack.
Morris will almost certainly earn a recall to the Barnsley XI, likely taking the place of Dike.
With Ismael having recently spoken about rotating his defenders, Toby Sibbick is an alternative to Michael Sollbauer.
Barnsley possible starting lineup:
Walton; Andersen, Helik, Sibbick; Brittain, Palmer, Mowatt, Styles; Morris, Woodrow, Chaplin
Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Gunn; Smith, Batth, Souttar, Norrington-Davies; Allen, Thompson; Brown, Powell, Clucas; Fletcher
We say: Barnsley 1-1 Stoke City
While both teams will be confident of earning maximum points at Oakwell, they will also be wary of gifting their opponents an edge in the race for the playoffs. With that in mind, expect a low-scoring contest in Yorkshire, one which could end in a draw.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 34.94% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.73%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (11.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
