Peruvian outfit Sporting Cristal will host Arsenal Sarandi for the first leg of their last-16 tie in the Copa Sudamericana on Wednesday.
The Brewers have won each of their last five matches on home soil, while the visitors are unbeaten in their last five games across all competitions.
Match preview
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For the second time in three years, Sporting Cristal finished third in the Copa Libertadores group stages, which has seen them drop down to the Copa Sudamericana.
Defeats against Racing Club and Sao Paulo in home and away fixtures proved costly, as they completed Group C with just four points from their six matches. They did, however, crucially win their penultimate match 2-0 against Rentistas to help push them up to third place.
Since the group stage came to its conclusion, the Brewers have celebrated domestic success, winning Fase 1 of the Peruvian Primera Division and also reaching the Copa Bicentenario final, a new cup competition formed in 2019.
Roberto Mosquera's men now turn their attention to the Copa Sudamericana, as they look to progress from the last 16, which they failed to achieve two years ago.
Arsenal Sarandi, meanwhile, have endured a difficult Apertura league season, losing seven of their 13 Argentine Primera Division matches and finishing in 12th place.
The Viaduct Men have, however, performed better in the Copa Sudamericana, accumulating 11 points from their six Group C matches, which helped them to top the group.
Arsenal won this competition in 2007 – the club's only continental success – and head coach Sergio Rondina will be hoping his team can brush aside their domestic form and make the improvements needed to reach the latter stages this year.
Rondina is set to rely on talisman Lucas Albertengo to find the net on Wednesday; the 30-year-old forward scored four goals during the group stages, including three in his last two matches.
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Team News
Sporting Cristal will be without wingers Alejandro Hohberg (muscle strain) and Christopher Olivares (knee) due to injury.
Mosquera could name a similar side to the one that beat Union Comercio 2-0 in their last match, which could see forward Marcos Riquelme partner Irven Avila in attack.
As for Arsenal Sarandi, Rondina has no injury concerns heading into Wednesday's game and could name the same starting lineup that beat Bolivar 3-1 in their final group-stage match in May.
One of Mateo Carabajal, Jonathan Bottinelli or Ignacio Gariglio is set to start in the heart of the defence alongside Gaston Suso, while Lionel Picco could keep his attacking-midfield role in behind strikers Albertengo and Bruno Sepulveda.
Sporting Cristal possible starting lineup:
Solis; Madrid, Merlo, Gonzalez, Loyola; Marchan, Castillo, Calcaterra, Grimaldo; Riquelme, Avila
Arsenal Sarandi possible starting lineup:
Medina; Benavidez, Suso, Carabajal, Papa; Soraire, Andrada, Castro; Picco; Sepulveda, Albertengo
We say: Sporting Cristal 2-1 Arsenal Sarandi
Despite topping their group, Arsenal Sarandi's inconsistent form will concern Rondina heading into Wednesday's game, particularly as they face a Sporting Cristal side full of confidence on home soil.
The hosts will be slight favourites for this contest and we can see them securing a narrow victory in Lima.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Cristal win with a probability of 41.1%. A win for Arsenal Sarandi had a probability of 36.66% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Cristal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.43%) and 3-1 (5.01%). The likeliest Arsenal Sarandi win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Cristal in this match.
