The only two non-European or South American nations left at the Under-20 World Cup prepare for battle in Sunday's quarter-final as South Korea Under-20s meet Nigeria Under-20s at Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades.
The Tiger of Asia edged a five-goal thriller with Ecuador 3-2 to advance to the quarters for the second time in a row, while their African counterparts stunned host nation Argentina 2-0 in the last 16.
Match preview
Seeking to go one better at the Under-20 World Cup after falling short in the 2019 final against Ukraine, South Korea's bid for glory in Argentina began in solid yet unspectacular fashion, going unbeaten in their three group fixtures with Gambia, France and Honduras but only prevailing in one of them.
Kim Eun-joong's men laid down a marker early doors against Ecuador, though, as Lee Young-jun and Bae Joon-ho - who set up his compatriot's opener - made the net ripple inside the opening 20 minutes of Thursday's game, but a Justin Cuero penalty nine minutes before the break would seemingly make things interesting.
However, Choi Seok-hyeon's header restored South Korea's two-goal advantage just three minutes after the restart, and even though Sebastian Gonzalez once again reduced the deficit for Ecuador in the dying embers, it was a fruitless endeavour against the Red Devils.
Showcasing a propensity for efficient attacking and undesirable defending, South Korea have found the back of the net seven times at the 2023 Under-20 World Cup while conceding six themselves, while Nigeria unexpectedly quelled a hitherto rampant Argentina attack earlier this week.
Even with the 27,000-strong home crowd roaring them on during Wednesday's last-16 contest, Argentina had no answers to a staunch Nigeria backline, one which absorbed incessant pressure from the host nation before hitting them with two second-half sucker punches.
After surviving 61 minutes with their defence intact, Nigeria went down the other end of the field and broke the deadlock through Ibrahim Beji Muhammad, before Rilwanu Sarki made sure of the Flying Eagles' shock win with an injury-time header.
Having been put to the sword 2-0 by Brazil in their final group game, many expected Nigeria to suffer the same fate at the hands of the Argentinians - who had 66% of the ball and 26 shots on the night - but Ladan Bosso's well-drilled outfit are worthy of their first quarter-final appearance since 2011.
The Flying Eagles had suffered a trio of successive last-16 exits in 2013, 2015 and 2019 before the current edition, but their last two appearances in the quarter-finals in 2007 and 2011 both ended in defeat, and the two-time runners-up - like South Korea - are also still waiting for their maiden World Cup crown at this level.
South Korea and Nigeria are familiar foes from tournaments gone by - the Asian nation won their first battle 2-1 in the 2005 group stage before the Flying Eagles earned a slice of revenge with a 1-0 triumph in 2013 - and whichever team makes it third time lucky will be rewarded with a semi-final date versus Colombia or Italy.
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Team News
South Korea came through their last-16 win over Ecuador unscathed, as none of Kim's troops reported any injury concerns or picked up suspension-incurring yellow cards, but the Red Devils boss must carefully assess any tired legs within his ranks.
With fewer than 72 hours between their last-16 battle and Sunday's quarter-final, Kim may give thought to a change or two out wide as Kang Seong-jin and Freiburg's Lee Ji-han - one of two players in the squad to ply their trade outside of South Korea - put their names in the hat for starting roles.
Meanwhile, Nigeria head coach Bosso should also be working with an identical group of players from their last-16 triumph over Argentina, leaving the 55-year-old with the best kind of selection dilemmas ahead of the quarter-finals.
Two substitutes in Sarki and Victor Eletu combined for the Flying Eagles' second against Argentina in midweek, and the former in particular will feel optimistic of taking Sunday Jude's place on the left-hand side of the attack.
South Korea Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Jun-hong; Chang-woo, Ji-soo, Seok-hyeon, Ye-hoon; Joon-ho, Sang-yun, Hyun-bin, Yong-hak; Seung-won; Young-jun
Nigeria Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Aniagboso; Bameyi, Fredrick, Ogwuche, Agbalaka; Nnadi, Daga, S. Lawal; Muhammad, S. F. Lawal, Sarki
We say: South Korea Under-20s 0-1 Nigeria Under-20s
Having displayed exemplary defensive nous to send Argentina packing, Nigeria can replicate such feats against a South Korea side working with a day's less rest, and the Tigers of Asia could fall victim to the unforgiving tournament schedule here.
Kim's team have often found the back of the net at will during the current World Cup, but we expect the Red Devils to run out of steam against the Flying Eagles, who can soar into the semi-finals for the first time in 18 years.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Korea Under-20s win with a probability of 60.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Nigeria Under-20s had a probability of 17.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Korea Under-20s win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Nigeria Under-20s win it was 0-1 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for South Korea Under-20s in this match.
Ben Knapton
