Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celje win with a probability of 56.75%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for NS Mura had a probability of 20.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celje win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a NS Mura win it was 0-1 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celje would win this match.