Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 42.6%. A win for Reggiana had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Reggiana win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.