Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 43.13%. A win for FeralpiSalo had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.55%) and 2-1 (8.32%). The likeliest FeralpiSalo win was 0-1 (10.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.