Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 49.52%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 22.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.32%) and 2-1 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Gijon would win this match.