Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirandes win with a probability of 41.2%. A draw had a probability of 30.7% and a win for Malaga had a probability of 28.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirandes win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.58%) and 2-1 (7.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.82%), while for a Malaga win it was 0-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mirandes would win this match.