Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 46.7%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Cartagena had a probability of 25.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.25%) and 1-2 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Cartagena win it was 1-0 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.