Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 35.74%. A win for Burgos had a probability of 35.19% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.43%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Burgos win was 0-1 (12.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.