Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Oviedo win with a probability of 35.04%. A win for Alcorcon had a probability of 33.33% and a draw had a probability of 31.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Oviedo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.98%) and 1-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Alcorcon win was 1-0 (13.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood.