Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 53.97%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 19.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.75%) and 2-1 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 0-1 (8.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sporting Gijon in this match.