Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.64%) and 2-1 (7.06%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (12.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Burgos in this match.