Two Pacific Northwest rivals going in opposite directions at the moment will do battle on Sunday in another round of the Cascadia Cup as the Seattle Sounders play host to the Portland Timbers.
Seattle are back in first in the Western Conference thanks to a three-game winning streak in league play, while the MLS is Back Tournament winners in 2020 have lost three in a row and are on the outside of the playoff picture.
Match preview
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The Seattle Sounders have found their groove again, and that is terrible news for the rest of the teams in MLS, with the Rave Green currently three points clear of Sporting Kansas City in the Western Conference.
A late goal from Will Bruin last Saturday not only gave this team some sweet revenge against the side who beat them in the MLS Cup Final in 2020, but the Sounders also made history in the process, becoming the first team in the league to win three road matches in seven days.
While the return of several veterans from injury has helped, Brian Schmetzer deserves a lot of credit for putting together a game plan each week that can give his side three points with the players available.
Not only has Schmetzer had to juggle his lineup throughout much of the year, but he has also had to contend with losing two members of his staff as well, with Gonzalo Pineda being appointed manager of Atlanta United and Djimi Traore officially departing this week for an opportunity to return to Europe.
They started to grow in confidence with their quarter-final victory in the Leagues Cup, and they took a lot of their frustrations out on Portland earlier this month, hitting them for six goals at Providence Park.
At the moment, they are the team to catch out West and are back on the right path to erasing the memory of their defeat in the MLS Cup final a year ago.
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The Timbers have been hovering just above or below the playoff line for most of the year, and they need to play catch-up once again.
Last Saturday, Giovanni Savarese saw his side get hammered by some relentless pressure from Austin FC, who scored three goals in the opening 30 minutes.
Their confidence had to have been shaken after suffering a 6-2 defeat at home to the Seattle Sounders in a match that could have been very different if not for the first half heroics of goalkeeper Stefan Cleveland.
Defensively this team have struggled, allowing 10 goals in their last three games, and their penalty area has turned into a shooting gallery for opposing sides lately, as they have conceded 21 efforts on target in those three matches.
If they can take care of business and turn things around, though, this team should be OK as they do have a game in hand on San Jose, who are in the final playoff position at the moment, two points ahead of Portland.
Unlike their arch-rivals Seattle, the Timbers have had a hard time contending with a slew of injuries and roster moves, which has impacted their chemistry on the field.
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Team News
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The Sounders are getting more players back from the long-term injured list, including captain Nicolas Lodeiro, who played 83 minutes on Saturday, Nouhou Tolo was on the matchday roster for the first time since May 30 but did not feature and Will Bruin scored his first goal of the season.
Jordan Morris will not be coming back anytime soon due to an ACL injury, Jordy Delem has a right ACL tear and Stefan Frei is still out with a left knee sprain/blood clot.
Jimmy Medranda assisted both Seattle goals versus the Crew, one of which was scored by Xavier Arreaga, his second of the season and first since May 16.
Dairon Asprilla collected his fifth goal in their loss to Austin, Diego Chara picked up his first assist of the season, and Jaroslaw Niezgoda made his second appearance for the club.
Portland have likely lost three players for the remainder of the season as Ismaila Jome underwent left Achilles tendon surgery, Jeff Attinella had right rectus femoris surgery and Andy Polo went through right quad and knee surgery.
Marvin Loria is questionable with a right lower leg problem, Josecarlos Van Rankin was taken off last week with a right thigh issue and Eryk Williamson is doubtful due to health and safety protocols.
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Cleveland; O'Neill, Arreaga, Nouhou; Rowe, Paulo, C. Roldan, Bruin; Lodeiro, Montero; Ruidiaz
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Clark; Bonilla, Zuparic, Tuiloma, McGraw; Paredes, Blanco, D. Chara; Asprilla, Mora, Niezgoda
We say: Seattle Sounders 2-0 Portland Timbers
The Sounders are hungry, scoring plenty of goals and are close to having their full roster back, while the Timbers may not have recovered psychologically from that lopsided defeat that they suffered to the reigning Western Conference champions in their last meeting.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Seattle Sounders win with a probability of 62.39%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 16.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Seattle Sounders win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for a Portland Timbers win it was 0-1 (4.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
