Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartans win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 32.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartans win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.