Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 61.95%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for St Mirren had a probability of 16.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.34%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.28%), while for a St Mirren win it was 0-1 (5.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hearts would win this match.