Two sides who are even in virtually every category in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A will face off this weekend when Santos host Internacional from Estadio Urbano Caldeira on Sunday.
Santastico were eliminated from the Copa Sudamericana on away goals on Thursday, while Internacional have won back-to-back league fixtures and are unbeaten in their last three Serie A matches.
Match preview
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If football matches were decided solely on certain statistics, then Santos would be on quite the roll at the moment, as they have had more possession than their opponents in each of their last eight matches in all competitions.
Unfortunately for Fernando Diniz and his team, the only stat that counts is goals, and Peixe have been struggling in that department lately, failing to score in three of their last five matches.
Since losing 2-0 to Serie D side Juazeirense, it seems like their confidence has been shaken, winning only one of their next four games in all competitions, even though they did advance on a 4-2 aggregate in their Copa do Brasil tie.
They were not so lucky this week in the Copa Sudamericana as they dropped a 1-0 decision to Libertad, who have yet to win a match in the Division Professional in Paraguay.
Santos are unbeaten in their last four home fixtures in all competitions, outscoring their opponents by a margin of 6-1 over that span.
After 16 games, they are in 10th, but there is not much ground to make up as a win this weekend could move them up to sixth, depending on the other results.
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Just above Santos in the table, we have Clube do Povo, who have been flexing their offensive muscles with four goals in each of their last two league matches.
Their strong play in front of goal is not unexpected as they did score 31 times in April and May, but they had not scored more than twice in any league fixture until their 4-0 win against Flamengo back on August 8.
Internacional got by for a long time on some solid defensive play, maintaining three clean sheets in all competitions at home before allowing two goals against Flu last weekend, while they had four combined shutouts in all of their matches in July.
The key to their success of late has been starting quickly, and they did that last weekend, with the opening goal coming eight minutes into that contest, 11 minutes earlier than their opener in the previous week versus the defending league champions.
Colorado have not beaten Santos on their home field since 2018, going goalless in their last two visits there, as Peixe won the previous match between these sides 2-0 last year.
While they look to be in a safe position at the moment, six points clear of relegation, a couple of losses could change things, but the good news is that this team have yet to lose successive matches in the Brasileiro this season.
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Team News
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Santos are missing Sandry, who is unlikely to feature again this season with a ruptured knee ligament, Kevin Malthus is out for the remainder of the year with a cruciate ligament injury and John is out with a meniscal issue.
Their leading goalscorer in league play, Marcos Guilherme, has not scored a goal since July 18, while the scoring drought for their number two goalscorer Marinho is even longer, as he has not found the back of the net since July 10 in a 3-2 defeat at Palmeiras.
Only one change was made to the starting 11 for Santos from their last league match to their defeat in the Copa Sudamericana, with Wagner Leonardo replacing Kaiky in central defence.
Internacional are likely to be missing centre-back Rodrigo Moledo, who has been nursing a cruciate ligament rupture since the beginning of the year.
Their top goalscorers are starting to deliver, with Edenilson notching a brace last Sunday, while Yuri Alberto added a goal in that match after scoring a hat-trick against Flamengo.
Daniel has five clean sheets in league play for Colorado, while Diego Aguirre made one change to the starting 11 against Fluminense as Moises replaced Paulo Victor.
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Jonatan, Leonardo, Kaiky, Madson; Ivonei, Camacho, Braga, Reis, Sanchez; Guilherme
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Daniel; Heitor, Mendez, Cuesta, Victor; Edenilson, Palacios, Dourado, Boschilia; Guerrero, Alberto
We say: Santos 0-0 Internacional
There is very little difference between these sides, as they have each scored as many goals as they have conceded, with Colorado notching three more than Santos (20-17). Furthermore, they are even on points and have split the season series in the Brasileiro over the past two campaigns, with each team winning their home fixture last year, and we saw two 0-0 draws in 2019.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 45.12%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Internacional had a probability of 26.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.02%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.96%), while for a Internacional win it was 0-1 (9.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
