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Santos
Brasileiro | Gameweek 15
Aug 8, 2021 at 8pm UK
Vila Belmiro, Santos
Corinthians

Santos
0 - 0
Corinthians


Diniz (65'), Mota (86')
FT

Roni (89')

Preview: Santos vs. Corinthians - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Brasileiro clash between Santos and Corinthians, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Following their first win in four Campeonato Brasileiro games last week, Santos welcome mid-table counterparts Corinthians to Estadio Urbano Caldeira on Sunday.

Separated by just two points in the Serie A standings, the Sao Paulo rivals are both seeking a win to stay in the hunt for Copa Libertadores qualification at the end of the campaign.


Match preview

Santos' Marinho celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on June 25, 2021© Reuters

Having cruised to a 4-0 win in the first leg of their Copa do Brasil last-16 tie against fourth-tier Juazeirense last week, it was perhaps no surprise that Santos took their foot off the gas in the return game, but a 2-0 loss to such lowly opponents on Thursday was still another unwanted reverse.

Before beating rock-bottom Chapecoense last weekend, Peixe had won just one of their six previous league matches and are treading water in eighth place in the standings heading into Sunday's Classico Alvinegro - so named because both sides wear black and white.

Since the start of last year, the clubs have met on four occasions in Brasileiro and Paulista competition, but Santos have won just one of those encounters, losing twice - including April's 2-1 defeat on home soil.

The side overseen by one-time Corinthians player Fernando Diniz is clearly undergoing a period of transition, after they reached the delayed final of the 2020 Copa Libertadores but lost to local rivals Palmeiras after a devastating stoppage-time goal. In the aftermath, head coach Cuca announced his departure and Argentinian tactician Ariel Holan was hired in his place, but did not last long.

Now, current coach Diniz can look forward to upcoming quarter-finals in both the Copa Sudamericana and Copa do Brasil, so will want to build a winning sequence in the league before turning his attention back to the knockout competitions.

Lyon coach Sylvinho gets a bit excitable on July 28, 2019© Reuters

Flattened by unstoppable Flamengo last time out in the league, Corinthians have lost three of their last four fixtures to slip behind Santos in the Serie A standings, to 11th place.

As they have been largely inconsistent throughout the 2021 campaign so far, former Lyon manager Sylvinho - whose failed tenure at the French club ended both swiftly and ignominiously - is under increasing pressure to improve performances and results.

Under the former Arsenal full-back, Corinthians have apparently focused on limiting the number of opportunities offered to opponents, but as a result, they have only once scored more than a single goal in a game themselves. The Timao have failed to find the net with any regularity, and no side above them in the table has registered fewer than their meagre tally of 12 league goals.

Until Flamengo's 3-1 win at Neo Quimica Arena, they had also not lost by more than one goal either, so thrills have been few and far between.

Their interest in the cup competitions has long since ended too, so Sylvinho has no excuses for failing to transmit ideas to his players, having been afforded plenty of time on the training ground in recent weeks. Certainly, the club's increasingly impatient fans will hope the man who represented them 136 times at the start of his playing career can soon find a winning formula.

Santos Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W

Santos form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

Corinthians Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Santos' Kaio Jorge celebrates scoring their third goal on June 6, 2021© Reuters

Santos wonderkid Kaio Jorge has travelled to Turin to sign for Italian giants Juventus, so has already played his final game for the club.

Joint-top scorer Marinho returns from suspension on Sunday though, so should come straight back into the side, but long-term injury victims Jobson and John remain sidelined.

The hosts' coach, Fernando Diniz, is likely to revert to a much more familiar XI, having made a raft of changes for the cup defeat in midweek, with Marcos Leonardo favourite to lead the attack again following Kaio Jorge's departure.

Meanwhile, Corinthians are set to be without back-up striker Gabriel Pereira (thigh), plus two younger players recovering from ACL injuries - Ruan Oliveira and Gustavo Mantuan.

As ever, Brazil goalkeeper Cassio will captain the side behind Sylvinho's preferred back four, with veteran striker Jo - on four league goals so far - starting in a lone role up front.

Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Madson, Felipe, Kaiky, Jonatan; Camacho, Mota; Braga, Sanchez, Marinho; Leonardo

Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Fagner, Victor, Gil, Santos; Cantillo, Gabriel; Gustavo, Roni, Adson; Jo


SM words green background

We say: Santos 1-1 Corinthians

Santos are far short of peak form, but are still favourites for this Sao Paulo derby, and will be tasked with taking the initiative. However, in Kaio Jorge's lamented absence, they certainly have fewer options in attack, so may struggle to break down their local rivals.

Despite leaking three goals against fearless Flamengo last time out, Corinthians still have one of the better defensive records in the division, so are capable of grinding out a draw if they can find a goal from somewhere.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data



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Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 49.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 24.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (8.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Santos vs Corinthians

Santos
46.2%
Draw
38.5%
Corinthians
15.4%
13
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Botafogo382310559293079
2PalmeirasPalmeiras38227960332773
3FlamengoFlamengo382010861421970
4FortalezaFortaleza381911853391468
5InternacionalInternacional381811953361765
6Sao Paulo381781353431059
7Corinthians381511125445956
8Bahia38158154949053
9Cruzeiro381410144341252
10Vasco da GamaVasco38148164356-1350
11Vitoria38138174552-747
12Atletico Mineiro381114134754-747
13Fluminense381210163339-646
14Gremio38129174450-645
15JuventudeJuventude381112154859-1145
16BragantinoBragantino381014144448-444
17Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR38119184046-642
18CriciumaCriciuma38911184261-1938
19Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO3879222958-2930
20Cuiaba38612202949-2030


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