Saint-Etienne's first Ligue 1 fixture of 2022 sees high-flying Lens pay a visit to the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard on Saturday afternoon.
Pascal Dupraz's side began the New Year with a resounding 4-1 Coupe de France victory over Jura Sud Foot, while the visitors kept their Champions League hopes alive with a 1-0 win over Rennes.
Match preview
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After Claude Puel somehow managed to hold on to his Saint-Etienne post by the thinnest of threads week after week, those upstairs decided it was time for change over the festive period, and Dupraz can at least boast a positive record from his opening three games in charge.
Saint-Etienne firstly saw off Lyon La Duchere in the cup before goals from Bakary Sako, Arnaud Nordin, Ryad Boudebouz and Mickael Nade got the job done against fourth-tier Jura Sud Foot, although a 1-0 league defeat to Nantes was sandwiched in between those two Coupe de France successes.
Les Verts were due to take on Angers in their first Ligue 1 fixture of 2022 before a Scoistes COVID-19 cluster forced the tie to be rescheduled, and Saint-Etienne therefore remain rock bottom of the rankings after losing their last five top-flight games of 2021.
19th-placed Metz sit four points clear of Saint-Etienne with a game in hand, so Dupraz's side will remain at the foot of the pile no matter what transpires on Saturday, but a first league goal since November would certainly be a good place to start.
This week's hosts have only prevailed once at home in Ligue 1 since the start of the season - and even then they were forced to work for their 3-2 success over newly-promoted Clermont - and averaging at least two goals conceded per game at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard does not bode well against a European-challenging outfit.
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Similarly, the less said about Lens' end to 2021 the better, as Franck Haise's side have gone from genuine Champions League contenders to European outsiders after a dismal festive period saw them go six top-flight games without a win.
However, the race for a continental place was blown wide open by Sang et Or during the previous gameweek, as Wesley Said came off the bench to secure a 1-0 win for his side over top-five rivals Rennes with 89 minutes on the clock.
Lens have slipped to sixth in the table amid their recent winless streak, but Haise's surprise package are now just one point behind Rennes in the Europa League spot, although Marseille are six points clear in the final Champions League spot with a game in hand.
Knocking Ligue 1 champions Lille out of the Coupe de France on penalties clearly increased the spirit within Haise's ranks, and Sang et Or will certainly need to channel that inner confidence here, as five of their last six Ligue 1 games away from home have ended in defeat.
Encounters between Saint-Etienne and Lens do not tend to be snooze fests - with 17 goals flying in over the course of the last four meetings - but Sang et Or had to settle for a point in a 2-2 draw with the league's basement side in August.
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Team News
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Saint-Etienne have been hit hard by Africa Cup of Nations absentees, as Wabhi Khazri, Saidou Sow, Harold Moukoudi, Yvan Neyou and Denis Bouanga are all representing their various nations.
Up-and-coming goalkeeper Etienne Green is also set to remain sidelined with his broken elbow, so Angers loanee Paul Bernardoni ought to make his debut here, while Sada Thioub could join his fellow Scoistes man in the XI with Romain Hamouma also uncertain.
Sako has also put his name in the hat for a start with his strike off the bench in the cup, but Dupraz should stick with Jean-Philippe Krasso due to his lack of out-and-out centre forward options.
Meanwhile, Lens have Ignatius Ganago and Massadio Haidara competing at AFCON, but goalkeeper Wuilker Farinez is fit to return from COVID-19 infection.
Deiver Machado's possible return from a meniscus problem could see Haise blessed with a nearly fully-fit team for Saturday's game, and the visiting coach has a big call to make up top.
Arnaud Kalimuendo and Gael Kakuta will not expect to lose their places in the final third, but Said's late winner against Rennes could see him rewarded with a start over David Costa.
Saint-Etienne possible starting lineup:
Bernardoni; Macon, Nade, Kolodziejczak, Silva; Boudebouz, Youssouf, Camara, Thioub; Nordin, Krasso
Lens possible starting lineup:
Leca; Gradit, Medina, Danso; Clauss, Fofana, Doucoure, Frankowski; Kakuta; Said, Kalimuendo
We say: Saint-Etienne 1-2 Lens
Lens' abysmal form on the road may make this a trickier encounter than some of the visiting crop believe, with Dupraz desperate to see the new manager bounce take effect on home soil.
However, underestimating Lens since their return to the top flight in 2020 has often proved fatal, and we do not expect the lowly hosts' fortunes to improve against the European challengers blessed with most of their big-hitters available.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 54.6%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 22.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.82%) and 0-2 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Saint-Etienne win it was 1-0 (6.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Lens in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lens.
