Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 48.81%. A win for Rostov had a probability of 27.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.29%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Rostov win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.