Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 65.45%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 13.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.8%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.