Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 48.7%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 27.2% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.48%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 1-2 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.