Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 44%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.62%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 0-1 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fakel would win this match.