Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 71.46%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 11.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for a Orenburg win it was 1-2 (3.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.