Russia kick off their World Cup 2022 qualifying campaign on Wednesday evening when they travel to the Ta' Qali National Stadium to face Malta in Group H.
The 2018 World Cup hosts, who are winless in their last six international matches, will be hoping to qualify for their third finals in succession.
Match preview
© Reuters
After successfully qualifying for Euro 2020, finishing second in Group I behind runaway leaders Belgium, Russia's UEFA Nations League campaign fell apart despite winning their opening two matches.
Two draws and two defeats in their final four matches, including a 5-0 thrashing by Serbia, saw Hungary leapfrog the Russians to the summit of League B3.
The pressure is now on manager Stanislav Cherchesov to turn their fortunes around during the World Cup qualifiers, with Wednesday's match against European minnows Malta seemingly the perfect way to begin their route to Qatar.
Amazingly, if Russia do manage to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, then they will be unable to use their name, flag or anthem due to the ruling by the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) in December, which also reduced their original four-year ban for doping offences to two years. Russia would be listed in the tournament as a 'neutral team' but they could have 'Russia' on their clothing as long as the words 'neutral athlete' or 'neutral team' are given equal prominence.
They are allowed to compete as themselves at Euro 2020 and during the World Cup qualifiers as those are not defined as major events by CAS.
Cherchesov will be hoping that improved performances from his players on the pitch can divert attention from their controversial issues away from it, with a strong start and victory expected on Wednesday night.
© Reuters
Malta have never managed to make it to the finals of any major international competition, despite competing in the qualifying stages for every World Cup and European Championships since they joined FIFA in 1959, and once again there are no expectations for them to sneak into the top two of Group H.
Ray Farrugia's side were, however, more successful during their UEFA Nations League campaign, winning two and drawing three of their six League D1 matches and finishing second behind the Faroe Islands. In fact, Malta even went through 2020 with an unbeaten home record, scoring 10 goals in the process.
This run, albeit against nations at a similar level to themselves, will give them confidence heading into the qualifiers, especially against a Russian outfit who have failed to win any of their last six international games.
The task on Wednesday should still prove to be a difficult challenge, one that will likely see the visitors prevail, but Farrugia will be hoping that his players can give a good account of themselves and maintain a positive atmosphere heading into the rest of the campaign.
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- D
- D
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Malta boss Ray Farrugia is not expected to make many changes to his starting lineup ahead of the clash with Russia.
Centre-back Zach Muscat could replace Kurt Shaw in defence and feature alongside Steve Borg and Andrei Agius, who is just three caps short of making his 100th international appearance.
Newport County forward Luke Gambin is set to remain in the side along with Jurgen Degabriele, playing in behind lone striker Luke Montebello.
For Russia, Spartak Moscow midfielder Roman Zobnin is ruled out with muscle damage sustained during a Russian Premier League match last Thursday.
With Brazilian-born goalkeeper Guilherme not selected in Cherchesov's 27-man squad, Andrey Lunyov or Anton Shunin will be competing for the number one jersey, with Shunin expected to get the nod.
Striker Artem Dzyuba, who has found the net in three of Russia's last five competitive away wins, is set to start up front ahead of Anton Zabolotny.
Malta possible starting lineup:
Bonello; Aguis, Z. Muscat, Borg; Mbong, Guillaumier, Teuma, Camenzuli; Gambin, Degabriele; Montebello
Russia possible starting lineup:
Shunin; Fernandes, Semyonov, Kudryashov, Zhirkov; Ozdoyev, Kuzyaev; Ionov, Golovin, Miranchuk; Dzyuba
We say: Malta 0-3 Russia
Malta have won only five competitive matches this century, making this encounter an apparent foregone conclusion, but the hosts will try to make it a frustrating evening for Russia on Wednesday.
However, the visitors should have no problems in securing a comfortable victory and their first away from home since September 2020.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 47.89%. A win for Malta had a probability of 26.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.26%) and 0-2 (8.82%). The likeliest Malta win was 1-0 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.
