Roma make the trip to the Renato Dall'Ara Stadium to face Bologna looking to end a two-match winless streak in Serie A.
While the home side lost out at Inter Milan last weekend, Sinisa Mihajlovic's team had prevailed in three of their previous four outings.
Match preview
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After AC Milan's resurgence since the middle part of the year, Paulo Fonseca knows that earning a return to the Champions League has become significantly tougher.
Failure to defeat either Napoli or Sassuolo in their most recent two fixtures has made Roma's task even tougher, but Fonseca will take the positives from earning a draw and clean sheet in the latter having played over half the game with 10 men.
While I Giallorossi now sit eight points adrift of the leaders, a more favourable fixture list without Europa League football as a distraction throws up a chance for Fonseca's team to make quick progress up the table.
A much-changed side lost out to CSKA Sofia on Thursday evening, but some of the squad's key players should be well rested for what feels like one of the most important games in their season.
Although Bologna sit four places and six points behind their next opponents, victory on Sunday would see the home side enter contention for the European places.
Mihajlovic's side have recorded six defeats in 10 games since the beginning of the campaign, but four wins have been enough to move the club out of trouble.
While there was disappointment after the 3-1 setback at Inter last weekend, Mihajlovic will prefer to focus on how his players have been competitive in every league match this season.
I Rossoblu are marginal underdogs for this contest, but that tag may suit this side as they bid to close the gap on a number of inconsistent teams above them in the table.
Bologna Serie A form: LWLWWL
Bologna form (all competitions): WLWLWL
Roma Serie A form: DWWWLD
Roma form (all competitions): WWLWDL
Team News
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With Bologna goalkeeper Lukasz Skorupski being ruled out through injury, second-choice stopper Angelo da Costa is expected to be named as his replacement.
If Mihajlovic decides to revert to a back four, Gary Medel could be the player to miss out in defence.
Roma will be without Pedro after the Spanish playmaker was sent off against Sassuolo last weekend.
However, Jordan Veretout is available again and should come into Fonseca's starting lineup.
Bologna possible starting lineup:
Da Costa; Silvestri, Danilo, Tomiyasu, Hickey; Schouten, Svanberg; Sansone, Soriano, Barrow; Palacio
Roma possible starting lineup:
Mirante; Ibanez, Smalling, Kumbulla; Karsdorp, Villar, Veretout, Spinazolla; Mkhitaryan, Pellegrini; Dzeko
We say: Bologna 1-2 Roma
After a couple of indifferent performances, Fonseca is aware that he needs a positive response from his team. While we feel that they will be made to work hard by their hosts at the weekend, expect a much-improved display from Roma as they look to remain in touch with the top four.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 46.96%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.05%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Bologna win was 2-1 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
