Two teams desperate to get back into the playoff race in the Eastern Conference will take to the field on Saturday as the New York Red Bulls host the Chicago Fire from Red Bull Arena.
New York are five points behind in the playoff chase right now, while Chicago have suffered back-to-back one-goal defeats.
Match preview
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At long last, the New York Red Bulls were able to snatch three points last week after falling short in several tight affairs.
Their 1-0 win over the Columbus Crew put an end to a seven-match winless run, which included four defeats by a single goal over their five previous games.
The high-pressing system employed by Gerhard Struber has been hit-and-miss for this team all season long and has proven to be a complicated system for his young group to master consistently.
They are clearly at their best in the friendly confines of Red Bull Arena, winning five times at home this year with consecutive clean sheets in their last two fixtures.
Another shutout on Saturday would be the 200th in their regular-season history, as they currently sit in fifth place in league history in that department.
This weekend is not only the final meeting of the regular season between Chicago and New York, but Struber knows that it is a pivotal game in the playoff race as the Red Bulls have two games in hand on the three teams that they need to catch to get into a playoff position, Columbus, Atlanta United and DC United.
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The Fire won in most of the statistical categories against Orlando City last week except the one that matters the most, the scoreboard, where they fell 1-0.
For the second time in their last three games, they had more shots on target than their opponents, but they continue to struggle when it comes to preventing goals, conceding 18 on the road this season while scoring only five.
It has been a frustrating campaign for Raphael Wicky and his team, who are right there in every match but cannot seem to find that little extra to earn three points.
Chicago have usually been able to control the tempo of their games with sharp passing and ball movements, but they seem to have at least one lapse in concentration which has resulted in them coming away empty-handed more often than not.
With 15 games remaining, their current road trip could determine whether or not they make the playoffs this year, with their next four matches to be played away from home.
A year ago, this team were a game away from clinching a post season berth, and with seven points to make up at the moment and five teams to catch, they can ill afford another lengthy setback like they had at the start of this campaign.
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Team News
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In the first meeting between these two teams from Red Bull Arena this year, New York right-back Kyle Duncan had an impressive showing, succeeding in 11 of his 12 duels, while Cristian Casseres and Caden Clark each fired home second-half strikes to give their team the victory.
The club signed centre-back Sean Nealis to a new three-year contract with an additional option year as the defender has become an integral part of the backline for this team, who have a goals against average of 1.00 when he starts and plays the full 90 minutes this season.
Aaron Long is out for the year with an Achilles injury, Youba Diarra and Cristian Casseres have hamstring problems and Cameron Harper remains questionable with a hip injury.
Chicago defender Boris Sekulic was one of their best player in Orlando last weekend, managing a 100% pass accuracy on his 18 passes, including 11 passes in the Lions half of the field, while fellow defender Miguel Navarro was named Man of the Match in that contest making his first start since July 24.
Luka Stojanovic scored both goals the last time these teams met earlier this month in a 2-1 win, as the Serbian midfielder has four goals in his previous three games.
Kenneth Kronholm remains sidelined with a right knee injury, Ignacio Aliseda has a left shin issue and Carlos Teran played the full 90 minutes after apparently recovering from a right thigh problem.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Duncan, Reyes, Nealis, Tarek; Davis, Tolkin, Clark, Amaya; Fabio, Klimala
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Calvo, Pineda, Bornstein; Stojanovic, Herbers, Medran, Gimenez, Sekulic; Collier, Beric
We say: New York Red Bulls 1-0 Chicago Fire
15 of the last 17 matches between these sides have been decided by a goal or fewer and only two points separate them in the table, but New York seem to remember their defensive responsibilities in front of their home fans, maintaining five clean sheets at Red Bull Arena this season.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 57.23%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 18.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.04%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
