Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 41.62%. A win for Real Garcilaso had a probability of 32.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Real Garcilaso win was 1-0 (9.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.