RB Leipzig entertain Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the hosts able to move into top spot with a victory.
The visitors, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back after two successive defeats.
Match preview
© Reuters
After dramatically securing qualification to the Champions League knockout stages for a second successive season with a 3-2 win over Manchester United on Tuesday, Julian Nagelsmann's attentions must now return to domestic action.
Avoiding defeat in a pulsating 3-3 draw at Bayern Munich last weekend ensured his side remain only two points behind the league leaders, who play at a later kickoff time on Saturday, meaning that Leipzig can overthrow them at the summit of the table, even if it does only prove to be temporarily.
Nagelsmann's side twice took the lead at the Allianz Arena during the draw, with Christopher Nkunku racing in behind Bayern's typically high line in the early exchanges, shimmying the ball to his left to round the advancing Manuel Neuer and finish into an empty net. However, strikes from substitute Jamal Musiala and Thomas Muller turned the game on its head, before a clinical Justin Kluivert finish levelled proceedings heading into the break.
Emil Forsberg restored Leipzig's lead with a free header from Angelino's delightful cross, before Kingsley Coman assisted Muller once again to earn a share of the spoils.
Overall, though, it has proved to be a very productive week for Nagelsmann, who will be looking to cap it off by overseeing his side extending their perfect home record in the Bundesliga so far this season.
© Reuters
After five successive draws, all of which ended 1-1, Bremen's standards and results have both slipped a little in recent weeks with two successive defeats to Wolfsburg and Stuttgart.
Florian Kohfeldt's side never really looked like earning anything from the 2-1 home loss against Stuttgart last weekend, with Tahith Chong, who is on loan from Man Utd, upending Wataru Endo in the penalty area in the early exchanges. Silas Wamangituka made no mistake from the spot, but the pacy forward could have doubled the visitors' lead when racing onto Gonzalo Castro's drilled long pass, instead blazing wide into the side netting.
Bremen struggled to convert possession into chances in the second half, with a defensive mix up between Omar Toprak and Jiri Pavlenka summing up their day, allowing Wamangituka to nick in between the duo and nonchalantly take his time before converting into an empty net. David Selke was visibly enraged by his opponent's insouciance, with the pair both booked after an angry exchange, before fighting back with a consolation goal.
However, Stuttgart had the last laugh by claiming a crucial three points, which saw Bremen slide to 13th in the table. After narrowly surviving relegation last season, Kohfeldt will now be looking over his shoulder having previously spent much of this campaign optimistically looking upwards.
RB Leipzig Bundesliga form: WLWDWD
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): DLWWDW
Werder Bremen Bundesliga form: DDDDLL
Team News
© Reuters
Leipzig will be without Konrad Laimer (ankle), Lazar Samardzic, Hwang Hee-chan (both coronavirus), Fabrice Hartmann, Benjamin Henrichs and Lukas Klostermann (all knee) for the visit of Bremen.
Nagelsmann generally likes to rotate and may mix things up after a mentally and physically draining European encounter in midweek, with the likes of Dayot Upamecano (who was suspended in midweek), Yussuf Poulsen, Tyler Adams and Kluivert primed to return to the starting XI.
Bremen, meanwhile, are likely to remain without key forwards Niclas Fullkrug and Milot Rashica, who have calf and hamstring injuries respectively.
Joshua Sargent surprisingly shook off a knock to start in the defeat to Stuttgart last weekend. The American striker could be partnered by Selke in attack after the target man's positive impact from the bench last weekend.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulasci; Konate, Upamecano, Orban; Mukiele, Sabitzer, Adams, Angelino; Kluivert, Forsberg; Poulsen
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Gebre Selassie, Toprak, Friedl, Augustinsson; Gross, Eggestein; Bittencourt, Sargent, Osaka; Selke
We say: RB Leipzig 2-0 Werder Bremen
Both sides are missing first-team players through injury, but Bremen's are arguably more influential in the shape of their two most likely goalscoring attackers.
As such, even with the tolls of the midweek win against Man Utd likely to have an impact on Leipzig's energy levels at some stage, we still expect a comfortable home win for Nagelsmann's side.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 58.94%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 19.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Werder Bremen win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
