Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Rayyan win with a probability of 42.4%. A win for Al Shamal had a probability of 35.46% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Rayyan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.47%) and 1-3 (5.19%). The likeliest Al Shamal win was 2-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Rayyan would win this match.