Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 66.11%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 13.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.07%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.78%), while for a NK Varazdin win it was 0-1 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hajduk Split would win this match.