Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 15

Dec 26, 2020 at 3pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
3 - 0
Crystal Palace

Traore (5'), Hause (66'), El Ghazi (76')
Mings (39'), Grealish (45+1')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Zaha (39'), Milivojevic (56'), Ward (68'), Eze (83')

Reaction

Aston Villa manager Dean Smith pictured on November 8, 2020

Dean Smith lauds "outstanding" Ollie Watkins after Palace victory

Ollie Watkins was involved in all of the goals as Villa won 3-0 despite losing Tyrone Mings to a red card before half-time.

Dec 26, 19:07

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 43.36%. A win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Crystal Palace win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Crystal Palace
43.36%	25.98%	30.66%

Both teams to score 52.82%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.67%

51.33%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.85%

73.15%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.46%

23.54%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.41%

57.58%

Crystal Palace Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.08%

30.92%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.79%

67.21%

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 43.35%

Crystal Palace 30.66%

Draw 25.98%

Aston Villa	Draw	Crystal Palace
1-0 @ 10.52% 2-1 @ 8.94% 2-0 @ 7.61% 3-1 @ 4.31% 3-0 @ 3.67% 3-2 @ 2.53% 4-1 @ 1.56% 4-0 @ 1.33% 4-2 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.97% Total : 43.35%	1-1 @ 12.35% 0-0 @ 7.28% 2-2 @ 5.25% 3-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.98%	0-1 @ 8.54% 1-2 @ 7.25% 0-2 @ 5.01% 1-3 @ 2.84% 2-3 @ 2.05% 0-3 @ 1.96% Other @ 3% Total : 30.66%