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[monks data]
Portsmouth
League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 15, 2022 at 3pm UK
Fratton Park
MK Dons

Portsmouth
1 - 2
MK Dons

Hirst (60')
Hirst (32'), Marquis (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Eisa (20'), Corbeanu (45')
Robson (52'), Harvie (90+8')

Preview: Portsmouth vs. MK Dons - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Portsmouth and MK Dons, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

MK Dons will be keen to maintain their position in the League One playoff spots when they travel to fellow-challengers Portsmouth on Saturday afternoon.

Pompey will begin the weekend outside the playoffs, and are desperate for three points to stop the top six from dragging themselves any further in front.


Match preview

MK Dons' Matt O'Riley celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 11, 2022© Reuters

Disappointing losers to FA Cup giant-killers Cambridge United in midweek, the defeat stemmed a run of four matches across all competitions for Portsmouth, who were just beginning to find their stride.

Previous to the Cambridge defeat, Portsmouth had lost only one of their last nine matches, with such form seeing them claw back into the playoff picture.

Having endured an early-season winless streak stretching across eight games, Danny Cowley's side seem to have turned a corner in League One, with promotion to the Championship still a possibility.

Should they wish to return to the second tier for the first time since 2011-12, it will almost certainly be via the playoffs.

Cambridge United's Dimitar Mitov in action with Portsmouth's Sean Raggett on January 3, 2022© Reuters

A whopping 13 points off second-placed Sunderland, albeit with three games in hand, it is unlikely that Portsmouth will be able to accumulate enough points to drag themselves back into automatic contention.

In need of points, Portsmouth will be keen to start with a statement victory over MK Dons, who currently occupy one of the four playoff positions.

One of three sides sitting on 43 points, MK Dons are a good bet to secure a playoff berth as they target a return to the second tier for the first time since 2015-16.

Relegated immediately in their only Championship campaign to date, MK Dons have since dropped down to League Two, before returning to League One.

On the whole, Liam Manning's side have performed consistently this season, and are yet to lose back-to-back games so far.

One defeat in their last seven league fixtures has left MK Dons in a strong position, and they will be confident of stretching that run out given their superior head-to-head record over Portsmouth.

Winners in the previous two clashes between the pair, MK Dons have been a thorn in Portsmouth's side of late, with Manning's men victors 1-0 victors during their meeting with Portsmouth earlier in the campaign.

Portsmouth League One form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D

Portsmouth form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L

MK Dons League One form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W

MK Dons form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W



Team News

Portsmouth manager Danny Cowley pictured on May 9, 2021© Reuters

Having fielded a close to full-strength side during the midweek defeat to Cambridge, it is unlikely to see a whole raft of changes in the Portsmouth side.

Teenage goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu has impressed with his performances so far this season, and the Republic of Ireland international will retain his position between the sticks.

Likely to set up with their familiar back-three system, Connor Ogilvie, Sean Raggett and Kieron Freeman will marshal the defensive line.

Goals have not always flown freely for Portsmouth this season, with top-scorer Marcus Harness no doubt keen to add to his nine goals for the campaign so far.

For MK Dons, David Kasumu missed the midweek victory over AFC Wimbledon, with the 22-year-old midfielder still nursing a hamstring injury.

Matt O'Riley scored the only goal of that game, with the promising midfield man reportedly being monitored by a number of clubs.

The Portsmouth clash could represent O'Riley's last match in an MK Dons shirt, and he will likely line up alongside Ethan Robson in the middle of the park.

Portsmouth possible starting lineup:
Bass; Freeman, Robertson, Ogilvie; Harness, Morrell, Romeo, Hackett-Fairchild; Jacobs, Hirst, Marquis

MK Dons possible starting lineup:
Ravizzoli; O'Hora, Darling, Lewington; O'Riley, Robson, Watson, Harvie; Corbeanu, Eisa, Twine


SM words green background

We say: Portsmouth 1-0 MK Dons

A clash that could shape the playoff positions come the end of the campaign, Portsmouth will be hoping that a victory can cut the gap to those ahead of them.

With the benefit of home support, expect Portsmouth to arrest their recent woes against MK Dons and pick up three points this weekend.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 47.7%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 26.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Portsmouth vs MK Dons

Portsmouth
50.0%
Draw
0.0%
MK Dons
50.0%
6
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Portsmouth manager Kenny Jackett pictured on March 31, 2019
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