Portimonense host Tondela in a mid-table scrap in the Primeira Liga at the Estadio Municipal on Saturday.
Portimonense are looking to push up the league ladder at home as they sit 13th in the table, just two points above the congested relegation zone.
Match preview
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Portimonense are coming into this match off the back of a grinding 0-0 draw with rivals Maritimo in their last match.
Results have been up and down for the club over the past two months, with just one win from their past seven matches.
However, in that period Portimonense have at least shown some resilience by picking up three draws during that stretch.
Their opponents, Tondela, remain in ninth spot on the ladder but are just four points above Portimonense.
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Auriverdes have claimed seven wins from their 21 fixtures this season, but possess a worse defensive record than Portimonense after conceding eight more goals in total so far in 2020-21.
However, their last match was a gritty 1-0 result over Gil Vicente, with Joao Pedro scoring the winner.
The Gold and Greens have won two of their past three league games, but have been far from prolific up front, with their goal return of 22 from 21 fixtures one of the lowest in Portugal.
Tondela will want to end their horrible run of away form that stretches now to eight defeats in a row.
Indeed, Auriverdes are the only team not to have won a single away game in the Primeira Liga this season.
Portimonense Primeira Liga form: LLDWLD
Tondela Primeira Liga form: WLLWLW
Team News
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For Portimonense both Lucas Possignolo and Lucas Fernandes are unavailable through injury.
There is also injury clouds over both Ricardo Ferreira and Ewerton.
Beto and Aylton Boa Morte remain the two key attacking weapons for the club, with the pair contributing five and three goals respectively in this campaign to date.
Tondela are likely to be without Bebeto, with Pako Ayestaran tipped to replace him in the starting XI.
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Moufi, Willyan, Lucas, Cande; Ewerton, Sa, Dener; Morte, Moreira, Salmani
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Ferreira, Tavares, Martinez, Almeida; Agra, Grau, Pedro, Olabe; Murillo, Gonzalez
We say: Portimonense 1-1 Tondela
These two sides are evenly matched with not a lot separating them. Both have found it hard to secure victories, with a draw the most likely result.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 54.78%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 19.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (7.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
