Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Puszcza Niepolomice win with a probability of 41.84%. A win for Lechia Gdansk had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Puszcza Niepolomice win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Lechia Gdansk win was 0-1 (8.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Puszcza Niepolomice would win this match.