Two of the hottest teams in Major League Soccer will face each other on Sunday when the Philadelphia Union host the Portland Timbers at Subaru Park.
The Union are unbeaten in their last four league matches, posting two consecutive shutouts, while Portland have put together two successive victories themselves without conceding.
Match preview
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The Union started the season slowly with just one point from their opening two fixtures, but they have come alive since advancing to the semi-finals of the CONCACAF Champions League.
Manager Jim Curtin has stressed to his side the importance of committing to defence, and that message has clearly been well received as the Union have maintained three clean sheets in their last four MLS matches and conceded only once in that time.
His team have executed the diamond formation to near perfection over the past couple of games, taking away a lot of time and space on their opponents while also attacking when the opportunity arrives effectively.
Subaru Park will be opening up to 75% capacity, which should provide yet another boost to a squad that went unbeaten at home in 2020 but have lost two of their three league fixtures this season in an empty home stadium.
This match could be a tough challenge for the Union, who are winless against the Timbers over the past six seasons and face a Portland side just starting to find their game.
Some critical injuries to the Timbers appear to have served as a rallying cry to a team with high expectations heading into 2021, after capturing the MLS is Back Tournament last season.
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Logan Ketterer has stepped up in place of injured goalkeeper Jeff Attinella brilliantly with two successive clean sheets, and making seven saves.
A frightening tackle on striker Andy Polo last week seemed to light a fire in Portland in the second half, as they scored three goals against the LA Galaxy.
In that match the false nine seemed to work wonders for the Timbers as star midfielder Diego Valeri and striker Felipe Mora were dazzling in the second half, with the latter scoring twice.
This team have faced some stiff competition since their elimination in the quarter-finals of the CONCACAF Champions League and have performed exceptionally well, narrowly losing to the Seattle Sounders before shutting down the San Jose Earthquakes and then the Galaxy.
If they can get healthy, they will be a formidable side to overcome and could be fighting with the likes of Seattle and Sporting Kansas City for the top spot in a very competitive Western Conference.
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Team News
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Right midfielder Jack de Vries could miss another match with a concussion, while fellow Union midfielder Ilsinho is out with a groin problem.
Polish striker Kacper Przybylko has a goal in two of his last three games, and goalkeeper Andre Blake has made 15 saves in his previous four starts, maintaining three clean sheets.
The Timbers will be without striker Andy Polo for the remainder of the season, with a torn muscle following that challenge in the first half of their match with the LA Galaxy that saw the dismissal of Derrick Williams.
Central midfielder Diego Chara and centre-back Larrys Mabiala are struggling with hamstring injuries.
Two of their goalkeepers, Jeff Attinella and Steve Clark, are both likely to miss out with thigh muscle problems.
Cristhian Paredes is suffering from a thigh muscle strain and left-back Ismaila Jome is out for the long term with an Achilles tendon rupture.
Veteran defender Josecarlos Van Rankin was spectacular in their last match, limiting the scoring opportunities for LA, assisting the winning goal and earning a spot in the MLS Team of the Week.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Wagner, Elliot, Glesnes, Mbaizo; Flach, Martinez, Bedoya; Monteiro; Burke, Przybylko
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Ketterer; Van Rankin, Tuiloma, Zuparic, Bravo; Williamson, Chara; Ebobisse, Valeri, Asprilla; Mora
We say: Philadelphia Union 1-1 Portland Timbers
These are two teams that are sound defensively, who have some exciting playmakers in the middle of the field that can open up a defence and catch you napping.
Both teams, however, have been at the top of their game lately, so finding an opening will prove to be quite difficult for either side.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 50.93%. A win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 25.39% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Portland Timbers win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
