Philadelphia Union welcome CF Montreal to Subaru Park on Saturday, with both sides sitting in a playoff final series spot in the MLS Eastern Conference.
Union are three places and four points further up the table, currently sitting fourth, but there is still a long way to go as we move into the second half of the season.
Match preview
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After a poor week, which included a 2-1 loss to New England Revolution and then a 2-0 defeat by Mexican side Club America in the first leg of the CONCACAF Champions League semi-final, Philadelphia have bounced back.
Wednesday saw an important 1-0 win over New York City; after a shaky start, Jim Curtin's side responded with a phenomenal final 45 minutes of action and a scorching header from captain Alejandro Bedoya just after the hour mark was enough to hand New York their first loss in seven matches.
That result moved them level on points with their most recent opponents and just one point behind Nashville SC in second place.
New England Revolution are totally out of sight, 14 points clear, but the fight for second is very much on and a win at home against Montreal could put Union in the driving seat.
They have the joint-second best defensive record in the Eastern MLS so far this campaign, conceding 19 goals in 20 matches, and solidity at the back is often crucial as the season reaches its climax.
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Montreal's defensive record is far from the worst in the league, but they have not been scoring enough goals to compensate for the ones which they have been shipping in.
There were no goals at either end in their midweek game against FC Cincinnati, which will have been a disappointing result for the Canadian team with the Orange and Blue winless in their eight previous games.
In truth, they were lucky to come away with a point, though, having seen a Cincinnati goal ruled out for offside and then withstood pressure in the second half, especially once going down to ten men after Rudy Camacho was sent off.
Montreal have not been playoff regulars in recent seasons and their aim will now likely be to hang on to that top-seven spot; they currently have a three-point buffer to Columbus Crew and Atlanta United.
Union have won three of the last four meetings between the two teams, so another draw here would probably suit Montreal.
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Team News
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Union's star midfielder Jamiro Monteiro returned to the team for the game against New York City, having been left out of the squad for the previous four matches whilst seeking a transfer.
He will likely now retain his spot, as could Alvas Powell at right-back. The Jamaican's return to the team after recovering from a hamstring injury may have coincided with Olivier Mbaizo's suspension, but he showed why the position should be his anyway and a clean sheet will not have hurt his cause.
Both Anthony Fontana and Jack De Vries have been absent from Philadelphia's side in recent weeks due to concussion, but the pair of midfielders were expected to make their returns to action in the middle of this month and could return to the bench, at least.
Montreal will be without Camacho, after the aforementioned red card, and goalkeeper James Pantemis is still unavailable as he remains in isolation after entering the MLS COVID–19 protocol.
Lassi Lappalainen and Ballou Tabla are both out with groin injuries, and Romell Quioto is set to sit out an eighth consecutive game due to a muscle injury he picked up on international duty.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Wagner, Glesnes, Elliott, Powell; Martinez; Flach, Bedoya; Gazdag; Santos, Przybylko
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Struna, Waterman, Miller; Choiniere, Wanyama, Maciel, Guillard; Mihailovic, Ibrahim, Torres
We say: Philadelphia Union 1-0 CF Montreal
As previously indicated, a high-scoring match looks fairly unlikely, and Philadelphia appear the more likely side to edge a win considering Montreal's absences and the recent record between the two.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 61.64%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 15.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.1%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
