Palmeiras have 10 games left in the Brasileiro to make up a 10-point gap between themselves and league leaders Atletico Mineiro; therefore the second-placed side cannot afford to slip up against relegation-threatened Gremio on Sunday.
This weekend's hosts are six points away from safety but they do have two games in hand on 15th- and 16th-placed teams Bahia and Santos, with their next two outings coming against the Brasileiro's top two.
Match preview
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New Gremio manager Vagner Mancini had an instant impact on the side as they beat Juventude 3-2 in his first game in charge two weeks ago, but his team could not follow that up with another victory last time out.
On Tuesday, Gremio travelled to Atletico Goianiense but the ninth-placed team ran out as 2-0 winners thanks to goals from Igor and Marlon Freitas.
Mancini's side did not fail to create chances in front of goal, but they were not clinical in the final third, seeing 11 of their 19 shots fly off target.
Gremio's next six fixtures are against teams who are currently within the top 10 in the Brasileiro, suggesting that this next period of matches will be make or break for Gremio's survival hopes.
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Palmeiras are unlikely to be able to catch Atletico Mineiro given the points gap at this stage of the season, and Abel Ferreira's side must be wary of dropping out of the top four, as Flamengo are only three points behind them with three games in hand.
After a run of seven games without a win in all competitions, Palmeiras have managed to get back on track with three straight victories heading into Sunday's game.
Ferreira's team fell behind against 18th-placed Sport Recife last time out but after Luiz Adriano had equalised for Palmeiras, the home side had to wait until eight minutes from time for Felipe Melo to seal a 2-1 win.
Palmeiras will be disappointed that they did not score more goals in that game, having created a massive amount of chances, registering 16 shots on target in total.
The second-placed side have conceded the most goals out of the top 11 teams in the Brasileiro, suggesting that they need to continue to be creative in the final third to cancel out any chances that they give away.
These two sides last met in July, when Palmeiras came out as 2-0 winners thanks to first-half strikes from Raphael Veiga and Gabriel Menino at the Allianz Parque.
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Team News
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Gremio centre-back Paulo Miranda will be unavailable for selection after receiving a red card during the defeat against Atletico Goianiense, and Rodrigues is likely to come into the back line in place of Miranda.
Three players will be absent for the home side due to injury including Leo Pereira, Leonardo and Geromel, who are all expected to return to full fitness early next month.
Apart from the forced change at centre-back, Mancini is likely to name a similar starting 11 as he has done for his first two games in charge, meaning that Diego Souza will continue to lead the line.
Menino, Jorge and Mayke are suffering with injuries and consequently they will be unavailable for Palmeiras this weekend, but Ferreira is expected to name the same starting lineup as last time anyway.
Striker Adriano ended his nine-game goal drought by finding the back of the net against Sport Recife last time out, and he will be keen to follow that strike up with another goal this weekend.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Brenno; Rafinha, Kannemann, Rodrigues, Vanderson; Villasanti, Santos; Alisson, Pyerre, Costa; Souza
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Piquerez, Garcia, Gomez, Rocha; Danilo, Melo; Dudu, Veiga, Roni; Adriano
We say: Gremio 0-2 Palmeiras
Palmeiras' superior league position compared to Gremio suggests that the away side are strong favourites for this tie, and after three consecutive wins, confidence is high again.
Gremio have failed to score in three of their last four matches, and Sunday is likely to be no different for the home side coming up against one of the strongest teams in Brazil currently.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 42.79%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 28.98% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.39%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (10.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
