Atletico Goianiense can end a nearly eight-year winless run versus Palmeiras when they face the big Sao Paulo club on Wednesday from Allianz Parque in their 30th match of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A campaign.
Dragao are 13th in the table, just a point behind America Mineiro and a spot in the Copa Sudamericana group stage next year, while Palmeiras are currently in second, trailing Atletico Mineiro by 10 points.
Match preview
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It is the time of year when we see who wants to win badly, and based on their results, Palmeiras look determined to make up the deficit between themselves and Galo, as they are currently on a five-match winning run in league play.
The record 10-time Serie A champions have not won the top flight of the Brasileiro since 2018, finishing no higher than third in both of their campaigns since that triumph.
Abel Ferreira has seen his players start to press their opponents more, and we are seeing the results, as they are in their best form of the season.
A year ago, Palestra began to falter as we reached the final few matches of the campaign, going winless in their last four encounters, so we will see what they were able to learn from that experience heading into the home stretch of 2021.
When they are playing with the kind of aggressiveness that we have seen in recent weeks, they are a difficult team to stop, although it can sometimes take them a while to find the back of the net, scoring eight goals on their last 27 targeted efforts.
Allianz Parque, which was once a fortress and one of the most intimidating places for away sides to play, has not been quite the same since the return of fans, with Palestra losing three of their last seven league fixtures played there.
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Close does not count in football, and Atletico Goianiense know all about that, having lost half of their league games by a single goal in 2021.
They are the third-lowest scoring side in the league with only 24 goals, and their failure to find a decisive breakthrough has often made the difference between three points and one, having collected five 0-0 draws this season.
For Eduardo Souza and his side to win, scoring first is imperative, with only two victories this year in league play when conceding the opening goal.
Over the past couple of games, they have not been able to get themselves into many good shooting positions with only five shots on target over their previous two matches, getting shut out in each game.
Their 4-2-3-1 formation has produced a mixture of good and poor results, but one thing that it has not done is prevent other teams from getting some quality scoring opportunities, as Goianiense have surrendered 18 shots on target in their last three matches.
Even though the way in which they line up is somewhat traditional, the problem in their system is that there is not enough creativity in the midfield to pick out their front players, and the holding midfielders have struggled to read the game the way that one needs to in that formation.
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Team News
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In their first meeting of the year, Atletico did an excellent job of keeping the Palestra attack at bay in the opening half, but an own goal from Eder just before the hour mark opened the floodgates as Gustavo Scarpa and Breno Lopes scored in injury time for Palmeiras in a 3-0 win.
Raphael Veiga has come alive for Verdao in recent fixtures, scoring a goal and picking up an assist over the weekend in a victory over Santos, as the 26-year-old who grew up in Sao Paulo leads the team with nine in the domestic campaign, and three in his previous two games.
Ferreira added one new player to the starting 11 this weekend, as Danilo was one of the two holding midfielders, replacing Felipe Melo, but we could see both of them starting on Wednesday since Ze Rafael is suspended following his yellow card on Sunday.
Last Friday, Dudu replaced Arnaldo at the back for Goianiense, Maranhao began as a holding midfielder rather than Ronald and Joao Paulo was put in rather than Ze Roberto.
Goalkeeper Fernando Miguel is tied for second in the league in clean sheets with 12, one shy of the current mark this year set by Everson of Atletico Mineiro.
Natanael has been the most creative midfielder for Goianiense with four assists, which is two more than Ze Roberto and Andre Luis.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Piquerez, Luan, Gomez, Rocha; Danilo, Patrick; Wesley, Veiga, Scarpa; Rony
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Jefferson, Eder, Wanderson, Dudu; Maranhao, Freitas; Janderson, Paulo, Toro; Ze Roberto
We say: Palmeiras 3-1 Atletico Goianiense
Palestra are starting to roll, and given the momentum that they are riding right now, slowing them down will not be easy, as they have scored multiple goals in three consecutive affairs.
Goianiense are not bad defensively, but their players in the middle of the field do not read the game quickly enough, so we expect Palmeiras to be able to win those battles in between the lines from defence to attack quite comfortably and at some point, you would think that they will score.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 62.91%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Atletico Goianiense had a probability of 14.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.03%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for an Atletico Goianiense win it was 0-1 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
