Two sides separated by just two points and two places in the bottom half of the Primeira Liga standings square off on Saturday as Pacos de Ferreira play host to Vizela at the Estadio Capital do Movel.
The Vizelenses will head into the game seeking to get one over the hosts having failed to win any of the last five meetings between the sides since 2008.
Match preview
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Pacos de Ferreira continue to search for their first win of the year as they fell to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Braga after bottling their lead in the closing 23 minutes of the game.
In a thrilling contest at the Estadio Braga Municipal, Vitorino Antunes scored on the stroke of half time to put the visitors ahead, but Portuguese forward Ricardo Horta put on a clinic after the interval as he struck twice to turn the tie around.
Cesar Peixoto's side have now failed to taste victory in any of their most recent six games — claiming four draws and losing two in that time — while they have managed just two wins from their last 16 across all competitions.
This poor run of results has seen Pacos de Ferreira drop to 13th place in the Primeira Liga standings, level with Boavista after claiming 21 points from 22 outings.
Their lack of cutting edge at the attacking end of the pitch has been a major factor in their struggles this season as they boast the league's second-worst record with 16 goals scored so far — only ahead of Belenenses who have scored 14.
Meanwhile, Vizela failed to return to winning ways last time out when they suffered a slender 1-0 defeat against Gil Vincente at the Estadio do FC Vizela.
Spanish forward Fran Navarro delivered the goods once again as he struck his 12th goal of the season from the penalty spot in the 27th minute to hand the Gilistas all three points.
For Vizela, this followed a thrilling 2-2 with Boavista at the Estadio do Bessa on February 6 which saw their run of two consecutive league victories come to an end.
With 23 points from 22 games, Alvaro Pacheco's men are currently 11th in the league standings, but could leapfrog Santa Clara and move into the top half of the table with all three points on Saturday.
However, the Vizelenses will have to see off an opposing side who are unbeaten in each of the last five meetings between the teams, claiming three wins and two draws in that time.
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Team News
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Pacos de Ferreira will take to the pitch without the services of 25-year-old defender Jorge Silva, who sustained an injury in December's game against Tondela.
He is joined on the club's injury table by fellow Portuguese defender Joao Vigario, who has been out of action since last August through a severe knee problem.
Flavio is also out of contention for the Pacenses as he continues his journey to full fitness after suffering a muscle injury in November's game against Maritimo.
Meanwhile, Pacheco remains unable to call upon the services of Raphael Guzzo, who picked up an injury shortly into the game against Boavista two weeks ago.
Vizela will also have to make do with the absence of Portuguese defender Ivanildo Fernandes, who has been out of action since November through a groin injury.
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Antunes, Maracas, Baixinho, Delgado; Carlos, Pires; Silva, Uilton, Santos; Denilson
Vizela possible starting lineup:
Silva; Kouao, Anderson, Aidara, Ofori; Claudemir, Samu, Mendez; Cassiano, Bondoso, Schettine
We say: Pacos de Ferreira 1-1 Vizela
With just two points and two places between the sides in the Primeira Liga table, we expect a cagey affair at the Estadio Capital do Movel on Saturday. Pacos de Ferreira have struggled for form on home turf this season and we are backing the Vizelenses to hold out for a share of the spoils.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 38.54%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 34.57% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Vizela win was 0-1 (9.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
