Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dungannon Swifts win with a probability of 37.97%. A win for Crusaders had a probability of 37.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dungannon Swifts win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.03%) and 0-2 (5.85%). The likeliest Crusaders win was 2-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dungannon Swifts would win this match.