Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nicaragua win with a probability of 57.21%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for French Guiana had a probability of 18.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nicaragua win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a French Guiana win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nicaragua would win this match.