What Vinicius Junior still needs to improve to become Brazil's post-Neymar leader

It is fair to say that, since Neymar's physical inconsistencies following the 2022 World Cup, there has been an expectation for Vinicius Junior to assume the leading role for the Brazilian national team. It is equally fair to say that has not yet happened.

Vini has been Real Madrid's standout player since 2022, when the baton was officially passed from Karim Benzema to the Brazilian. His numbers improved, individual award conversations began, and despite recent inconsistency and the arrival of Kylian Mbappe, the No. 7 remains revered in Madrid.

And yet there is a lingering sense that something is missing. With or without Neymar, Vinicius has not been the standout performer for Brazil, not even under Carlo Ancelotti, with whom he enjoyed such success in Spain. Rodrygo and Estevao, for example, have been more impressive. So what is it that he lacks?

Strong numbers that may not tell the full story

Vinicius Junior's goal contribution numbers in the Champions League are excellent. His creative side is powerful: he creates for himself with his driving runs and for others with crosses from different angles, through balls or on the counter-attack.

One area that still draws criticism, however, is the moment of finishing. The Brazilian's development since arriving at Real Madrid is undeniable, early in his career he was the subject of ridicule for missing clear-cut chances, but he has since become a reliable scorer of around 20 goals per season.

The deeper question around the No. 7 may lie in the way he still misses big chances. Vinicius is a high-volume player — both he and the team create a great deal — but his conversion rate could undoubtedly be higher. One statistic that does not necessarily tell the whole story but helps illuminate the issue is the difference between goals scored and expected goals (xG).

In La Liga this season, for example, the Brazilian has scored 11 goals in 28 games, a shade over one every three matches. Yet his xG stands at 11.5, meaning he has actually underperformed against the opportunities he has had.

XG figures can be imprecise. A difference of one expected goal may not seem especially significant in isolation. But an opportunity carrying "only" 0.5 xG, for instance, can represent a major missed chance from close range.

In the Champions League, this was most evident during the recent victory over Manchester City. Vinicius scored twice, including a penalty, but had almost three expected goals and wasted several big chances in different ways. It should have been a game with more than a hat-trick and a far superior individual performance.

If the discrepancy in La Liga amounts to roughly one negative goal against expectations, in the Champions League it is starker still: five goals scored against 7.22 xG — more than two goals below expectations.

Vinicius Junior's record in front of goal

Perhaps the central issue for Vinicius Junior in front of goal is one of expectation. His career began with a top scorer award and MVP honours at the South American Under-17 Championship at just 16 years old. Even from early on as a dribbling winger, there was anticipation of the prolific goalscorer he might become.

Vini has become a reliable goalscorer, but not the prolific one many had hoped for. This season, the No. 7 has a conversion rate of just 11% in the Champions League and 12% in La Liga, very low figures. In World Cup qualifying, he managed only two goals in 11 games, a 9% conversion rate, alongside eight big chances missed.

Comparisons with similar wide forwards reinforce this picture. Mbappe's Champions League campaign with Monaco in 2016-17, when he emerged as a teenage sensation, featured a 35% conversion rate. Neymar's lowest conversion rate in Ligue 1 came in 2019-20 at 18%, but that was a season of 13 goals in 15 games. Despite injury-disrupted form this season, Raphinha has a 21% conversion rate in La Liga with 11 goals in 8.89 xG, more than two goals above expectations.

In his Ballon d'Or-debated 2023-24 season, Vini scored 15 goals at a 19% conversion rate, not a figure that particularly impresses either.

Even setting aside arguments about whether Vinicius needs to consistently exceed xG expectations — a figure that does generate debate — this is not the first season he has fallen short or broken even. He also finished the 2022-23 campaign with a negative difference between goals scored and expected goals, despite being named the eighth-best player in the world on the Ballon d'Or list.

Room for improvement and points of comparison

That track record does not mean improvement is impossible. He has already outperformed his expected goals, even if not by much, in 2023-24, for example, he scored 15 goals against 13.1 xG. There are also examples of similar players who turned those numbers around.

Cristiano Ronaldo is the obvious example, though difficult to use as a direct comparison given he is one of the greatest of all time. Bryan Mbeumo, however, is a more tangible and recent case: he went from an inconsistent wide forward in front of goal to one of the Premier League's leading scorers.

Before his move to Manchester United at the start of this season, he had two Premier League campaigns with nine goals each — but with negative xG differences. Last season, though, he scored 20 goals against 12.2 xG — an extraordinary return of almost eight goals above expectations.

If he looks to Mbappe for inspiration, Vini will see a teammate who was a prolific wide forward at PSG and consistently exceeded expectations: 29 goals in 26.3 xG in 2022-23 and 27 in 20.9 xG in 2023-24, his final two seasons in France. In his La Liga debut, operating more centrally, he scored 31 goals in 25.9 xG.

Perhaps what Vinicius Junior needs to remain a genuine contender for individual awards is, among other things, more favourable numbers. Without scoring at a higher rate, his case may simply not be strong enough. And ultimately, it is that kind of leading role that the Brazil national team needs — particularly after Neymar left as the country's all-time top scorer.