Preview: New Caledonia vs Jamaica - prediction, team news, lineups

Facing each other for the first time, either New Caledonia or Jamaica will move a step closer to qualifying for World Cup 2026 when the two square off at Estadio Akron in Mexico on Thursday.

The South Pacific side were relegated into this phase of qualifying after losing the final in the Oceania section 3-0 to New Zealand, while the Reggae Boyz wound up second in the third round of CONCACAF qualification, drawing 0-0 with Curacao.

Match preview

A seemingly impossible dream could come true for New Caledonia, who are a mere two wins away from a place in the World Cup.

Only admitted into FIFA in the early 2000s, this French territory were a half hour away from potentially booking a place in Mexico, Canada and the United States before conceding three times to the All Whites.

Johann Sidaner took on a mountainous task in 2022, leaving his job as a youth coach at Nantes to manage this tiny island nation.

It would be quite the underdog story if they got to the finals this summer, seeing as they are ranked 150th by FIFA, with most of their players either playing locally in New Caledonia or in the fourth or fifth tiers of the French football league system.

They will enter this encounter having won two of their previous three international games, claiming a 2-0 triumph over Gibraltar in October.

Thursday will mark their fourth all-time meeting with a CONCACAF nation, with Les Cagous losing multiple times to Caribbean side Martinique.

The path to the World Cup for the 2026 cycle evidently was not as straightforward for the Jamaicans as many had expected

After winning their first two qualifiers in round three by a combined margin of 6-0, this team failed to claim maximum points in three of their final four contests, finishing just below the top spot.

The federation have entrusted Rudolph Speid to try and get them into the finals for the first time since 1998, following Steve McClaren’s resignation after their 0-0 draw with Curacao in November.

While they failed to book a direct place in the World Cup last winter, the Jamaicans are currently riding a four-match unbeaten run across all competitions.

Over that stretch, they have only conceded one goal, while posting clean sheets in their previous two international affairs, including a 1-0 win over Grenada in January.

This will be the first time they will face a side from Oceania since losing 5-0 in a friendly to Australia in 2005, when the latter were playing in that region before transitioning to Asia.

New Caledonia World Cup Qualifying Form:

New Caledonia Form (all competitions):

Jamaica World Cup Qualifying Form:

Jamaica Form (all competitions):

Team News

We saw three new faces in the New Caledonia starting 11 against Gibraltar, who did not begin their match versus New Zealand, including Morgan Mathelon, Jean-Jacques Katrawa and Gerard Waia.

Georges Gope-Fenepej and Joseph Athale led them with three goals each in qualifying, while their record cap holder Cesar Zeoula is four appearances away from 50.

Among the notable Jamaicans returning from the injury front are Leon Bailey, with the Aston Villa man missing their qualifier with Curacao due to a thigh issue, while Michail Antonio was not selected for this window, having moved to Qatar last month after sustaining serious injuries during a car crash.

Shamar Nicholson was their joint top-goalscorer in third-round qualifying, netting twice but he was left off this roster, while Renaldo Cephas also scored twice in the previous qualification phase.

New Caledonia possible starting lineup:

Nyikeine; Iwa, Simane, Mathelon, Jeno; Athale, Bako, Kenon; Zeoula, Gope-Fenepej, Waya

Jamaica possible starting lineup:

Blake; Latibeaudiere, D. Lowe, Pinnock, Bell; Lambert, Hayden; Bailey, Decordova-Reid, Cephas; Gray

We say: New Caledonia 0-2 Jamaica

Fairy tales do not always have a happy ending, and as great a story as New Caledonia have written, we believe they will eventually fall to a Jamaican side full of talent who have played in their share of must-win games.