High-flying Torpedo-BelAZ will travel to a struggling Neman side in the Belarusian Premier League on Thursday evening.
Neman currently sit four points above the relegation zone as things stand, while Torpedo find themselves one point behind leaders BATE Borisov in second.
Match preview
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The Belarusian Premier League has remained largely unaffected by the coronavirus pandemic, but Neman's proposed tie against FC Minsk last Friday was the first game to be called off due to a suspected COVID-19 case in the Minsk camp.
As a result of the postponement, Neman remain in the relegation playoff spot after eight matches, but Igor Kovalevich's side now have a game in hand on the teams above them.
Neman have been ever-presents in the Vysheyshaya Liga since the league's inception in 1992 but should results not improve soon, Kovalevich's side could well be playing in the second division next season.
The 14th-placed side have triumped over Vitebsk and Energetik-BGU during the 2019-20 campaign, but they suffered their second defeat on the bounce as Rukh Brest enjoyed a 4-2 victory over Neman in their most recent outing.
A brace from Gegham Kadymyan, who is now the league's joint top scorer with six strikes to his name, was overshadowed by a poor defensive display from Kovalevich's men at the Neman Stadium.
Nevertheless, Rukh's victory over Neman was the first time in seven matches that Kovalevich's side suffered defeat in front of their own fans - and the first time in 12 league fixtures that Neman conceded more than one goal on home soil.
Torpedo took full advantage of Slutsk's defeat to BATE as they enjoyed a 3-1 win over Gorodeya to move into second spot last Friday.
Yuri Puntus has witnessed his team accumulate five wins and three draws from nine matches thus far, and the second-placed side are well on course to record their best ever finish in the Belarusian top flight.
Furthermore, Torpedo are one of only three sides in the division to have gone their last five games unbeaten, although three of those results have been goalless draws against BATE, Rukh and Slavia Mozyr.
Goals have been pretty hard to come by for Torpedo on their travels in recent times. Puntus's side have failed to find the net in three of their last four away outings, with five of their six strikes on the road coming in their 5-2 thrashing of Minsk at the beginning of May.
Should current champions Dinamo Brest secure a win over BATE in Wednesday's clash, Torpedo would rise above the 15-time champions and sit atop the Belarusian Premier League table with a victory on Thursday.
Neman Vysheyshaya Liga form: DDLWLL
Torpedo-BelAZ Vysheyshaya Liga form: WDDWDW
Head To Head
The two clubs have met 42 times since 1999, with Neman recording 11 wins and Torpedo triumphing 16 times across all competitions.
However, Neman have only picked up one win over their opponents since 2013, with Torpedo winning seven of the last 12 meetings between the pair.
Last season's corresponding match ended in a goalless stalemate, and Torpedo took the spoils in the most recent fixture courtesy of a Dmytro Yusov goal.
We say: Neman 0-1 Torpedo
Torpedo boast the superior record over Neman and have enjoyed a much more impressive campaign than their opponents thus far. With that in mind, we are backing the away side to take all three points and continue their quest for a first-ever Belarusian top-flight title.
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for Torpedo-BelAZ had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.12%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest Torpedo-BelAZ win was 0-1 (11.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.
