Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 40.96%. A win for Belarus had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Belarus win was 1-0 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.